Stop Worrying About The Long Term Forecast – The Climb #109

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Stop Worrying About The Long Term Forecast – The Climb #109

Wednesday 10th May 2017

I woke up with a scratchy throat this morning and I wonder if this touch of illness has put me a little off colour today.

This has been the first day where I really didn’t enjoy vlogging.  Maybe the novelty has worn off but I found I was asking myself why I felt the need to set myself such an impossible challenge rather than… you know… go and enjoy a holiday.

(Although to be fair, whilst is is my holiday, it’s not going to be very relaxing)

I wonder if the angst I’ve been feeling towards my writing over the last couple of days is somehow connected to it.  There’s a small part of me that just feels that it’s all going to fall apart, that I’m going to discover there’s been a huge mistake and I can’t write, and that I’ll be left with egg on my face in front of all my peers.  It’s not overwhelming me but I can feel it there lurking in the shadows.

Actually, I’m thankful, because those fears of writer insecurity kinda cued me in to the fact that I was probably a bit under the weather today.

So I told myself what would happen if my writing career fell apart:  I’d dust myself off, get up and carry on documenting my journey.  After all, it wouldn’t be the first time my writing career has fallen apart.  And I wouldn’t be the first writer that has happened to.  So why I’m worrying about it?  I have no idea.

I guess a lot of it has to do with the fact that my future is so unclear.  I can’t really make plans until I have some idea of what the future looks like.

As you know I watch a lot of successful people:  from athletes to entrepreneurs and rappers.  I’ve looked at the similarities between those that make it big, not so much looking for a secret sauce so much as trying to find the patterns and commonalities across disciplines.  And whilst I can see parallels with my own personal narrative, the one thing all of them say that they needed to learn at this stage of their career is patience.

And so that’s what I’ve been doing, focusing more on the journey rather than trying to reach the destination.  But you know… some days you do wonder if this progress you see in yourself is just all in your head and maybe all this work is for nothing.

I know myself well enough to know this is me off my game.  This is something most likely caused by illness.

Proof came later in the day when I sat down to edit vlog0004.  I’d been watching some Youtube videos on video editing as I did my day job.  I found them really helpful and as a result… I really, really enjoyed the editing, more so than the filming.  I can already feel my creative muscles flexing.  I want to do more interesting things, I want more interesting shots.

I’m aware that the vlog is very much pieces to camera but that’s going to drastically change next week, if only in terms of scenery.  So despite me feeling like filming was a chore, at the same time I’m really excited about making all these videos and think it’ll build into something fun.

Perhaps the only reason I’m doing it, though, is to take my mind off the writing.   Well, even if that’s true, it’s not like I can do a ton of writing on the road.

I worked from home today because I was expecting my MiFi device to be delivered and it had to be signed by me personally.  I actually prefer working from home because unlike a lot of people, I get a load more work done and somehow also get other things complete as well.

As I worked today, I watched a couple of videos on Skew-T diagrams.  These are the very boring graphs that meteorologists use to predict the weather and particularly (for me) tornadoes.  I knew the basics but today I learnt about things like the LCL and Mixed Layer Cape which are all important buzzwords when discussing whether a storm will become tornadic.

I made the mistake of looking at the long range forecast.  Now, the thing to know about weather prediction is that it gets more accurate the closer you get to actual forecast time.  The further away you are, the more chance you have of the forecast being wrong.  It’s not unheard of to look at the 14 day forecast and see (according to the models) something approaching weather Armageddon.

As a result, you take the long range models with a pinch of salt.  At best they are an indication that severe weather might happen within a general area.  But that doesn’t stop me looking at the end of the week after next and thinking how awesome Kansas and Nebraska are going to be.

The season has been very slow this year.  Usually by May the storms have moved up into Northern Oklahoma and Kansas but this year they seem to be staying south.  So far south in fact that were it not for the time it would take to cover the distance we’d be driving from one US border to another.

As I say, it’s not worth getting excited about and instead, you should just watch as the models develop.  Do they consistently show severe weather or does the risk lessen as the date draws close?

I went swordfighting tonight.  This is my last lesson for a few weeks.  My friend Simon is taking the group for the next 3 weeks carrying off where I left off.  Supposedly when I come back I’m going to have a load of new freshly-passed safety test students.

I got home at 12:30am (which is not bad for a Wednesday night) and found myself acutely knackered.  I put this down to illness.

Only 2 more work days to go until I’m on vacation.  There’s still so much to do and whilst I’m not at blind panic stage, I suspect that might not be far off.

I’m sure I’ve forgotten to do something vital.

If you want to follow more of my journey, then be sure to check me on my social channels.  Likewise, if you’d like me to expand on any point mentioned above, please say so in the comments.

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2017-05-11T08:34:52+00:00May 11th, 2017|Health, Marketing, Publishing, Swordfighting, The Climb, Weather|0 Comments

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