And I’m currently sitting bang in the middle of the enhanced risk area! ┬áThere’s a 5% chance of tornadoes, which sounds low but people have seen great stuff with lesser risk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015
   VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SWRN/S CENTRAL SD AND
   WRN/CENTRAL NEB...
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
   INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN TX...
   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   OVER SRN TX...
   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST
   COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING...NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
   THIS EVENING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THREAT FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO
   WEST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
   EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH TEXAS.  A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF
   THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION TO
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES IS FORECAST
   TO CONTINUE EWD REACHING THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A
   SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE SRN
   AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A BROAD REGION OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE
   WRN STATES WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE WITH THE PRIMARY LOW
   DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE
   NWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z/16.  A NORTH-SOUTH DRY LINE IS
   FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS LOW SWD INTO
   SWRN TX BEFORE IT IS OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATER
   TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
   NWD ACROSS PARTS OF SD TONIGHT.
   ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...
   ELEVATED STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN A BAND FROM SWRN SD ACROSS CENTRAL
   NEB AND NORTH CENTRAL KS WITHIN A ZONE OF FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL ADVECTION DIMINISHES
   LATER THIS MORNING.  IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS...MOISTURE WILL
   SPREAD NWD AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE OVER WRN PARTS OF NEB AND
   SD...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED
   ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8
   DEG PER KM/ OVER THE HIGH PLAINS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DIABATIC
   HEATING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
   WITH SBCAPE REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
   FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
   NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ADJACENT WARM FRONT.  THIS WILL COMBINE
   WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
   LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AS IT ADVANCES NWD ACROSS
   THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO ENHANCE UPWARD MOTION OVER THE AREA.
   CONSENSUS OF MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE
   STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN WY/NERN
   CO/NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN SD REGION WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING NEWD THROUGH
   THE EVENING HOURS.  VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...PARTICULARLY
   ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT... WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /35-45 KT IN LOWEST 6 KM AGL/ FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
   TO DEVELOP INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS.  STRONG CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES
   THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE
   NEWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS BY THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
   POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEFORE STORMS
   WEAKEN AFTER 03-06Z.
   ...WRN KS INTO WRN TX...
   ALTHOUGH THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EWD DURING THE
   DAY...LIMITED FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE SUGGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED DURING
   THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/STEEP
   LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SUSTAINED CELL
   THAT FORMS.  THE DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT WWD DURING THE
   EVENING...AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD AND OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE
   FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT...MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   INITIATE IN A BAND FROM EXTREME ERN CO/WRN KS SWD INTO PARTS OF WEST
   TX.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS
   EWD/NEWD INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND OVERSPREADS THE WRN
   EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STRONGER STORMS
   WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   ...SOUTH TX...
   A SMALL LINEAR CLUSTER OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS
   PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AND IS MOVING EWD INTO PARTS OF ERN LA SALLE AND
   NRN WEBB COUNTIES.  NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE ON THE SRN FLANK
   OF THE STORMS WHERE MOIST INFLOW IS PROMOTING NEW UPDRAFT FORMATION.
    THE STORMS ARE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM FROM A WELL-DEFINED FEATURE IN
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SWRN TX AND NRN
   MEXICO.  THIS SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
   AS IT SPREADS EWD/SEWD WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 30-40
   KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
   TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE
   EXHIBITED BY CRP VAD WINDS.
   ...LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   A RATHER BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE WITHIN A
   BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AS GRADUAL MOISTENING
   OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS COMBINES WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING TO
   RESULT IN AN AMPLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES REGION -- WHERE WEAKEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  FARTHER
   W...GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT WEAKER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD -- IN
   AN OVERALL SENSE -- GREATLY LIMIT ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL/SEVERE
   WEATHER RISK.  STILL...WITH A STRONGER WIND GUST OR MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAILSTONE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF
   LOW /5%/ HAIL AND WIND SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.
   ..WEISS/LEITMAN.. 05/15/2015